ATLANTA, Ga. — With 19 days left before the midterm, the race for Georgia governor is effectively deadlocked, and the outcome may hinge on a slice of voters willing to mark a ballot for both parties.
Jackson, the Republican nominee, draws 49% to 47% for Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in the newest InsiderAdvantage survey, which reached 800 likely voters over the two days ending Oct. 13. That gap sits inside the poll’s 3.46-point margin of error. The pollster weighted results by age, race, gender and party, and the survey was done after a televised debate that Jackson skipped.
Turnout is running hot. The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office counted about 190,000 ballots on the first day of early voting, topping the 2022 midterm opening-day mark by more than 53,000. Two full weeks of early voting remain.
Ticket-splitting is not a theory in Georgia. A University of Georgia-led study of cast vote records from the 2022 midterm, covering roughly 94% of the 3.96 million ballots cast, found 224,519 voters, or 6.1%, chose different parties for U.S. Senate and governor. Most of them backed Democrat Raphael Warnock for Senate and Republican Brian Kemp for governor; only 0.3% went the other way. The split was even wider in the Senate and secretary of state pairing, where 371,126 voters crossed over. Self-described independents were about three times as likely to split as committed partisans.
Early-vote analysis from a Republican-leaning polling firm suggests the pattern could grow. Through two days, 51.2% of early voters had a history of voting in Democratic primaries, the same share seen at that point in 2022. Voters with no primary history at all, the independents who often decide statewide races, have been slow to show up. Ticket-splitting in Georgia usually runs around 5.5%, and the firm expects it could reach 8% to 9% this year between each party’s strongest and weakest candidates.
If that happens, Georgia could end up with a divided state government, with down-ballot contests such as secretary of state, attorney general and lieutenant governor feeling the effects. Some Democratic-leaning voters in Fulton County have said they are weighing Bottoms’ record as Atlanta mayor before deciding.
On the trail, Bottoms has kept hitting Jackson for missing the debate, while Jackson has been touring the state on household cost issues ahead of Friday’s rally in Dalton with President Donald Trump.
Section: More Atlanta GA politics news
