Anthropic IPO Shuts Out China Orders as Pricing Nears

Banks running the initial public offering of Anthropic PBC are turning away orders from investors in mainland China and Hong Kong, people familiar with the deal said, as the artificial-intelligence company heads into the final days before pricing what could be the largest listing on record.

Several underwriters have refused orders from institutional buyers in the two regions or told them allocations are unlikely, the people said, and some cited the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, the U.S. export-control rules for defense technology. The prospectus does not spell out such a restriction, and final allocation decisions rest with Anthropic. Some investors with ties to China have tried other routes, including a trust registered in the British Virgin Islands, special purpose vehicles and swaps, the people said. Anthropic declined to comment.

The approach mirrors the SpaceX offering in June, when syndicate banks were told to keep out orders from the same regions. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the Anthropic deal, with about 20 other banks in the syndicate. Anthropic does not offer its products in China and has blocked companies under Chinese control from its services.

A wide spread on revenue

Demand has not been the problem. The book was about six times covered by the end of Thursday. The harder question for buyers is how fast sales will grow. Bank models used in the marketing put 2028 revenue at roughly $270 billion to $280 billion, people familiar with the matter said. Some sell-side estimates call for about $52 billion to $53 billion this year and $135 billion to $137 billion in 2027. Certain buy-side forecasts run 10% to 15% higher, while one investor who studied the deal and passed put 2028 revenue about 30% below the bank figure.

Some investors said the company gave limited answers to detailed questions during the roadshow, and one said a group meeting did not offer a dial-in line for questions, an unusual step. Buyers are using SpaceX and CrowdStrike as reference points for valuation.

The week ahead

The range remains the $70 to $78 a share set on Nov. 10. At the top, the 825 million shares would raise about $64.4 billion. Anthropic is expected to price on Wednesday and begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT on Thursday.